Friday, December 18, 2009

BLS releases 10-year industry outlook

In an attempt to assess the evolving US employment picture, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week released their projection of how various industries might fare within the next decade. In its 2008-2018 outlook, which shows an aging and more racially and ethnically diverse labor force, BLS predicts a whopping 96-percent increase in new jobs in service-providing industries. Total employment is projected to increase by 15.3 million, or 10.1 percent, during this period. The relatively slow growth rate for the earlier 10-year period was affected by the recession that began in December 2007, and the projected growth rate is higher than would otherwise be expected because the 2008 starting point is a recession year, BLS notes.

More than half of the new jobs are expected to be in professional and related occupations and service occupations. In addition, occupations where a postsecondary degree or award is usually required are expected to account for one-third of total job openings during the projection period. Job openings from replacement needs--those which occur when workers who retire or otherwise leave their occupations need to be replaced--are projected to be more than double the number of openings due to economic growth.

So, how are specific industries expected to fare? Aside from the expected employment growth concentrated primarily in the service-providing sector, continuing a long-term shift away from the goods-producing sector of the economy, BLS reports that the two industry sectors projected to have the largest employment growth are professional and business services (4.2 million) and health care and social assistance (4.0 million).

In a bad news scenario, however, the following ten industries projected by BLS to experience the largest wage and salary declines are as follows:

#1 Department stores: Government forecasts an industry loss of 159,000 jobs -- more than 10% -- over the next ten years.

#2 Semi-conductor and other electronic component manufacturing: BLS projects that the industry will lose almost 34% of its jobs by 2018.

#3 Auto parts manufacturing: Despite massive automaker bailouts, the government predicts the industry that serves those companies will lose almost 19% of its jobs.

#4 Postal service: The USPS employed 748,000 people in 2008, but the government anticipates the number will fall 13% over the next decade to 650,000.

#5 Printing and related support industries: BLS projects a 16% loss.

#6 Cut-and-sew apparel manufacturing: BLS anticipates that the industry will lose 57% of jobs by 2018.

#7 Newspaper industry: The worst may be yet to come with government estimates that jobs will decrease by nearly 25%.

#8 Mining support industry: the BLS estimates that approximately 23% of the jobs in this industry -- which as of 2008 sustained around 328,000 jobs -- will be lost by 2018.

#9 Gas stations: by 2018, the number of gas station industry jobs, which in 2008 stood at 843,000, is likely to be cut by 9%, according to the government report.

#10 Wired telecommunications carriers: predictions are that the wired telecommunications industry, which provided 666,000 jobs in 2008, will lose 11% of its employment opportunities by the end of the next decade.

The 2010-11 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to
Industries will feature the 2008-18 projections in assessing job prospects, work activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more for numerous occupations and industries. The updated Handbook and Career Guide will be available online on December 17, 2009, at www.bls.gov/oco and www.bls.gov/oco/cg/, respectively.

No comments:

Post a Comment